The NFL's annual free agency period consistently captures headlines with high-profile player signings and blockbuster trades, yet some of the most consequential decisions happen when teams part ways with established veterans. Creating salary cap space often proves just as valuable as acquiring new talent, forcing front offices to make difficult choices about underperforming or overpaid players. While fans focus on which stars might join their favorite teams, executives spend countless hours analyzing contract structures, dead money implications, and long-term financial flexibility. As the 2026 offseason approaches, several AFC franchises face pivotal decisions regarding notable names whose contracts have become financial liabilities, potentially altering the conference's competitive landscape.
The Miami Dolphins find themselves at a definitive crossroads following a regime change that installed general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley. The new leadership wasted no time signaling their rebuild intentions, releasing four veterans—wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, pass rusher Bradley Chubb, and guard James Daniels—on Monday to generate over $56 million in 2026 cap relief. These moves represent just the opening salvo in what promises to be a comprehensive roster overhaul. However, their most significant and complicated decision involves quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, whose tenure in Miami appears to be reaching an unceremonious conclusion after years of unfulfilled promise and injury concerns.
The financial mathematics surrounding Tagovailoa's contract present a complex puzzle that will test the new regime's strategic acumen. The Dolphins quarterback carries a fully guaranteed $54 million salary for 2026, creating substantial cap complications however the team proceeds. Cutting Tagovailoa before June 1 would trigger a catastrophic $99.2 million in dead money, an untenable outcome for any franchise, regardless of their commitment to rebuilding. A post-June 1 designation would distribute that burden across two years, but the financial pain remains severe and would hamper the team's flexibility through 2027. The most palatable option might involve trading Tagovailoa before June 1, which would result in $45.2 million in dead money but simultaneously create $11 million in cap savings. This route requires finding a trade partner willing to absorb his contract, likely with Miami paying a portion of his guaranteed salary to facilitate the deal. The Dolphins would need to identify a quarterback-needy team with sufficient cap space and willingness to bet on a change of scenery reviving Tagovailoa's career. Regardless of the mechanism, Tagovailoa's disappointing career arc with the Dolphins seems destined to end before the 2026 season kicks off, closing a chapter marked by flashes of potential but ultimately defined by inconsistency and durability issues.
Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders enter the offseason with a new coaching staff and the coveted first overall selection in the draft, making quarterback Geno Smith's future exceptionally tenuous. The veteran signal-caller endured a brutal 2025 campaign, throwing 19 touchdowns against a league-worst 17 interceptions while absorbing 55 sacks behind a porous offensive line. His 84.7 passer rating ranked among the NFL's lowest, and his film study revealed some of the poorest quarterback play in the league, with questionable decision-making and inconsistent accuracy plaguing his performance. The Raiders could create $8 million in cap space by releasing Smith, though they would incur $18.5 million in dead money—a significant but manageable cost for a team prioritizing a fresh start. New head coach Klint Kubiak must decide whether Smith merits a bridge role to presumed top pick Fernando Mendoza, the highly-touted quarterback out of Colorado who represents the franchise's future. With Pete Carroll's departure from the organization, his hand-picked quarterback seems unlikely to survive the regime change, as new coaches typically prefer to install their own personnel rather than inherit previous mistakes. The Raiders' commitment to rebuilding around a new franchise quarterback makes Smith's roster spot an expensive luxury they can ill afford, especially when those resources could support the development of their rookie signal-caller.
In Tennessee, running back Tony Pollard faces uncertainty despite posting remarkably consistent production over the past four seasons. The veteran has accumulated between 1,288 and 1,378 scrimmage yards annually while scoring five to six touchdowns in each of the last three campaigns, demonstrating remarkable reliability and durability. Unfortunately, his individual success hasn't translated to team victories, as the Titans posted consecutive 3-14 records in 2024 and 2025 with Pollard leading the backfield. As Tennessee rebuilds around presumptive franchise quarterback Cam Ward, the dynamic passer they selected with the first overall pick in 2025, Pollard's $9.25 million cap hit becomes difficult to justify for a non-premium position. Releasing the running back would free $7.25 million in cap space, resources better allocated to positions of greater value in a modern NFL offense such as offensive tackle, edge rusher, or secondary help. At 29 years old in April, Pollard's athletic decline has already begun manifesting in the data—his 12.05 mph average speed and 11.6% rate of runs exceeding 15 mph both represent career lows, suggesting his explosive ability is waning. For a rebuilding team prioritizing youth and future flexibility, moving on from an aging running back makes strategic sense despite his reliability and locker room presence.
These three cases illustrate the cold calculus of NFL roster management, where past performance and loyalty frequently lose out to financial pragmatism and strategic vision. The Dolphins must navigate Tagovailoa's contract albatross while maintaining enough flexibility to build a competitive roster, the Raiders need to fully commit to their quarterback of the future without the distraction of a failed veteran experiment, and the Titans must allocate resources wisely during their rebuild around a young franchise passer. Each decision carries significant cap implications and roster consequences that will shape these franchises for years to come, potentially defining the tenures of new coaching staffs and front offices. As free agency approaches, the AFC's cut watch list serves as a reminder that sometimes the most important moves are the ones that subtract rather than add, and that today's star can become tomorrow's salary cap casualty in the relentless pursuit of sustainable success.