Recent polling data has delivered an unexpected blow to President Donald Trump, with multiple surveys indicating that a growing segment of the American electorate now believes Joe Biden's presidency was more effective than the current administration. This trend represents a significant shift in public sentiment as the nation approaches the critical midterm elections.
A comprehensive analysis of three major polls conducted in early 2025 reveals a consistent pattern of declining approval for Trump's second term. The YouGov/Economist collaboration, the latest in this series, found that 46 percent of respondents believed Biden performed better in office, while only 40 percent favored Trump's current tenure. This six-point margin challenges the narrative that Trump's return to power has been met with widespread enthusiasm.
The Harvard CAPS/Harris survey, fielded between January 28-29, presented an even more stark picture. Among registered voters, 51 percent expressed the view that Trump is performing worse than his predecessor. This figure is particularly noteworthy given the poll's timing, capturing sentiment just weeks into Trump's renewed presidency.
Adding to the administration's concerns, the Rasmussen Reports poll from February 2-4 showed 48 percent of likely voters favoring Biden's previous term over Trump's current one, with 40 percent holding the opposite view. The significance of this particular survey cannot be overstated, as Rasmussen has historically reported more favorable numbers for Trump and has been frequently championed by the president himself as a reliable metric of his popularity.
The White House has pushed back against these findings through spokesperson Davis Ingle, who stated: "President Trump was overwhelmingly elected by nearly 80 million Americans to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda. The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics."
This defensive posture reflects the administration's recognition of the potential damage these numbers could inflict. Historically, Trump has been quick to celebrate Rasmussen's results when they align with his preferred narrative, often using their data points as evidence of his political strength. The organization's latest headline, however, offered little room for such celebration: "Worse Than Biden? 58 percent Don't See Trump's 'Golden Age'."
Perhaps most alarming for Republican strategists is the erosion of support within demographics previously considered Trump's electoral foundation. CNN's senior data analyst Harry Enten highlighted this vulnerability, noting that Trump's advantage among voters without college degrees—his core base in both 2016 and 2020—is showing signs of collapse. "If you know anything about Donald Trump, you know that he built his two presidential victories on winning voters [who are] without a college degree," Enten observed. "Well, Donald Trump's base with non-college voters is absolutely collapsing."
The demographic challenges extend beyond educational lines. The YouGov/Economist poll revealed a dramatic 51-point swing against Trump among voters aged 18-29 since his return to office. This generational divide could have profound implications for the Republican Party's long-term electoral prospects, particularly as younger voters become an increasingly significant portion of the electorate.
These polling trends are already shaping expectations for the upcoming midterm elections. When asked to predict the outcome in November, 43 percent of respondents anticipated a Democratic victory, compared to just 27 percent who foresaw Republicans maintaining or expanding their control. This 16-point gap in electoral expectations suggests that voters are not only dissatisfied with the current trajectory but are also prepared to translate that dissatisfaction into concrete political action.
The policy-specific approval ratings reveal the depth of this discontent. On economic management—an area where Trump has consistently claimed success and pointed to various indicators of growth—57 percent of those surveyed disapproved of his approach, while only 34 percent offered their support. This 23-point deficit undermines one of the administration's central messaging pillars and calls into question the effectiveness of Trump's economic narrative.
Immigration, another cornerstone of Trump's political brand, shows similarly troubling numbers. Despite aggressive policy implementations and continued emphasis on border security, just 40 percent approved of the administration's handling of immigration, while 53 percent expressed dissatisfaction. This reversal on an issue that has historically energized his base indicates that even core policy areas are not providing the expected political shelter.
Beyond substantive policy matters, the poll uncovered resistance to symbolic gestures as well. The controversial decision to rename the Kennedy Center to the Trump-Kennedy Center met with 64 percent disapproval, suggesting that even among those who might support Trump's policy agenda, there are limits to the personalization of American institutions.
The cumulative effect of these individual data points is captured in a single, devastating metric: 62 percent of respondents believe the country is "off on the wrong track." This broad sense of national misdirection transcends partisan loyalty and speaks to a deeper unease about the country's direction under Trump's leadership.
These polling results arrive at a critical juncture, with the midterm elections looming and control of both congressional chambers hanging in the balance. For Republicans, the data presents a clear warning that the political environment may be shifting in ways that could threaten their legislative agenda and electoral prospects. For Democrats, it offers a glimmer of hope that the expected historical pattern of the president's party losing seats in midterm elections might not follow its usual course.
The White House did not immediately respond to requests for additional comment on the polling data, leaving the administration's strategy for addressing these concerning numbers unclear. What is evident, however, is that the political landscape is more fluid than many analysts had predicted, and the narrative of Trump's invincible political brand is facing its most serious test to date.