The Hilton Coliseum is set to become a battleground this Thursday evening as the surging Iowa State Cyclones prepare to defend their home court against a Colorado Buffaloes squad desperately seeking to reverse its fortunes. This Big 12 conference showdown pits two programs heading in starkly different directions, with the Cyclones riding a wave of momentum while the Buffaloes find themselves mired in their longest losing streak of the season.
Iowa State enters the contest with an impressive 18-2 overall record and a 5-2 mark in conference play, having won their last two games by comfortable double-digit margins against UCF and Oklahoma State. The Cyclones have established themselves as legitimate national championship contenders, a status cemented by their recent dominant performances where they've outscored opponents 171-128 in their past two outings alone. After suffering a brief hiccup with consecutive road losses to Kansas and Cincinnati earlier this month, T.J. Otzelberger's squad has rediscovered its elite form and appears poised for a deep postseason run.
Standing in their path are the Colorado Buffaloes, whose season has taken a dramatic downturn after a promising start. Once sitting pretty at 10-1, Colorado has dropped seven of their last nine games, including a current five-game skid that has raised serious questions about their ability to compete in the rugged Big 12 landscape. While four of those five defeats saw them fail to reach the 71-point threshold, it's worth noting that only one loss came by double digits, suggesting the Buffaloes remain competitive even in defeat.
The individual talent on display Thursday night will be nothing short of spectacular, with several nationally recognized performers set to take center stage. Leading the charge for Iowa State is Milan Momcilovic, who has emerged as the most efficient long-range shooter in all of college basketball. The junior forward currently leads the nation in three-point percentage, connecting on an astounding 54.1% of his attempts from beyond the arc. What makes this feat even more remarkable is the volume—Momcilovic's 80 made three-pointers also rank first nationally, proving he's not just selective but prolific. With six games of 25 or more points already this season, Momcilovic represents the kind of offensive weapon that can single-handedly dismantle opposing game plans.
Complementing Momcilovic's scoring prowess is the versatile Joshua Jefferson, who has made history of his own this season. Jefferson has recorded two triple-doubles, tying him for the most in the country and making him the first player in Iowa State program history to achieve multiple triple-doubles in a career. His ability to impact every facet of the game—scoring, rebounding, and playmaking—gives the Cyclones a dynamic second option that keeps defenses constantly off-balance. Together, Momcilovic and Jefferson combine to average 36.2 points per game, forming one of the most potent one-two punches in the nation.
Defensively, Iowa State boasts another standout in Tamin Lipsey, whose name is already etched in the record books. Lipsey holds the program record for career steals and ranks among the top four in Big 12 history in that category. This season, he leads the conference and ranks 21st nationally with 2.4 steals per game, while his 4.8 assist-to-turnover ratio places him third in the country. Lipsey's ability to create turnovers while taking care of the basketball exemplifies the disciplined, high-efficiency approach that has become synonymous with Otzelberger's program.
For Colorado, the challenge of containing this star-studded trio appears daunting, but the Buffaloes have weapons of their own. Freshman Isaiah Johnson has evolved from a bench contributor to a key rotation piece, earning his increased playing time through consistent production. His breakout performance against UCF—20 points and six assists—showcased his potential as a future cornerstone for the program. Johnson's development will be crucial if Colorado hopes to snap its losing streak against elite competition.
Veteran guard Barrington Hargress provides the Buffaloes with steady leadership and efficient scoring. Averaging 14.2 points and 4.6 assists per game, Hargress shoots an impressive 54.8% from the field and an even more remarkable 53.6% from three-point range. His ability to space the floor and make smart decisions with the basketball gives Colorado a fighting chance against any opponent. Speaking of ball security, the Buffaloes set a team record by committing just three turnovers in their recent game against Kansas, demonstrating their capacity for disciplined play even against top-tier competition.
The strategic matchup between these squads presents fascinating contrasts. Iowa State's defense has been a constant under Otzelberger, ranking as a top-15 unit nationally in each of his five seasons at the helm. This year is no exception, as the Cyclones combine perimeter pressure with interior solidity to create a suffocating defensive ecosystem. Virginia transfer Blake Buchanan has bolstered the frontcourt, providing the kind of physical presence that should allow Iowa State to dominate the glass throughout the 40-minute contest. This rebounding advantage could prove insurmountable for a Colorado team that has struggled to generate second-chance opportunities during its losing streak.
Colorado's profile suggests they're better than their recent results indicate. The Buffaloes rank in the top 40 nationally in both assist-to-turnover ratio and free-throw percentage, metrics that typically correlate with success in close games. However, their inability to score—failing to reach 71 points in four of their last five outings—has undermined their efficiency advantages. Against Iowa State's stingy defense, which has held opponents under 70 points in 12 of 20 games this season, Colorado's offensive woes may be exacerbated.
The key to an upset, if one is to materialize, lies in Colorado's ability to contain Momcilovic while maintaining their trademark ball security. The Buffaloes' three-turnover performance against Kansas proves they can protect the basketball against pressure, but Iowa State's defensive system is more sophisticated than what they've faced recently. Lipsey's ball-hawking abilities will test Hargress and Johnson's decision-making, while Jefferson's versatility could create mismatches that Colorado's frontcourt struggles to address.
From a historical perspective, this game represents a crucial juncture for both programs. Iowa State currently sits seventh in the latest national power rankings, with analysts citing their unique blend of defensive excellence and offensive star power as a recipe for Final Four success. A victory over Colorado would solidify their standing and build momentum for upcoming showdowns against ranked opponents. For Colorado, the stakes are equally high but framed differently. With each loss, their NCAA Tournament hopes dim further, making this game a must-win scenario if they want to remain in the at-large conversation.
The betting markets have opened with Iowa State as substantial favorites, reflecting the gap in recent performance and overall talent. However, college basketball is notorious for its unpredictability, and Colorado's statistical profile suggests they're capable of keeping games competitive. The question is whether they can translate those underlying metrics into actual production against one of the nation's best teams.
When the final buzzer sounds, expect Iowa State's combination of elite defense, rebounding dominance, and star power to prove too much for the struggling Buffaloes. Momcilovic's shooting gravity will create open looks for teammates, Jefferson's all-around brilliance will fill the stat sheet, and Lipsey's defensive tenacity will disrupt Colorado's offensive rhythm. While the Buffaloes' discipline and efficient guard play should keep the game respectable early, the Cyclones' depth and home-court advantage will likely create separation in the second half.
The most probable outcome sees Iowa State extending their winning streak to three games while Colorado's losing streak reaches six. Yet even in defeat, the Buffaloes can take solace in their competitive nature and the continued development of young talent like Johnson. For Iowa State, this game represents another opportunity to fine-tune their championship-caliber machine before the postseason arrives.