The Australian Open stands apart from the other Grand Slam tournaments for several compelling reasons. Held in the opening weeks of January, it arrives when most players are still shaking off the rust from their off-season. Unlike the French Open, Wimbledon, or US Open—where athletes arrive battle-tested after months of competition—the Melbourne major often serves as the first serious test of the year for many competitors. This unusual timing creates a level playing field where preparation, mental sharpness, and adaptability become paramount. The tournament's distinctive atmosphere and early-season placement have contributed to its reputation for producing unexpected champions and thrilling upsets. With that context in mind, let's examine three intriguing matchups and identify where the smart betting value lies.
**Xinyu Wang vs. Jelena Ostapenko: A Pivotal Rubber Match**
This first-round encounter marks the third meeting between these two competitors, with their head-to-head series deadlocked at one victory apiece. Their initial clash occurred at the 2022 WTA St. Petersburg event, where Ostapenko emerged victorious on an indoor surface. Wang evened the score earlier this year at Indian Wells, securing a hardcourt win in the second round.
Current form heavily favors the Chinese player. Wang has compiled a solid 6-2 record in 2026, with all matches contested on hardcourts. Her impressive run to the final at WTA Auckland demonstrates she's already found her rhythm. Notably, within her last ten matches, she has scored victories against rising star Alexandra Eala and even managed to topple world number one Iga Swiatek—though that particular win came in an exhibition setting. Her movement has looked crisp, and her baseline consistency has improved significantly.
Conversely, Ostapenko has been mired in a prolonged slump. The Latvian has registered just a single win since August 2025, and her 2026 campaign has started poorly at 1-2 on hardcourts. Her powerful game remains dangerous, but consistency has deserted her. Unforced errors have plagued her recent performances, and her usually reliable serve has become a liability under pressure.
The betting angle here is straightforward. Bookmakers have installed Wang as the favorite, and the numbers align with reality. Taking Wang to win outright at 1.75 odds with bwin represents excellent value. For those seeking higher returns, backing Wang to win in straight sets at 2.75 via Bet365 offers an attractive alternative. The form gap is simply too significant to ignore, and Wang's current confidence level should carry her through any moments of adversity.
**Katerina Siniakova vs. Amanda Anisimova: First Career Meeting**
Unlike our first matchup, these two players have never faced each other professionally. Siniakova enters with a respectable 7-3 record across her last ten matches, though a closer look reveals she's been treading water at 3-3 in her most recent six contests. The Czech player is primarily known for her exceptional doubles prowess, and her singles game sometimes suffers from mental fragility under pressure. Her counterpunching style can be effective but often lacks the offensive weapons to put away elite opponents.
Anisimova, meanwhile, appears poised for a breakthrough. The American reached the round of 16 at WTA Brisbane and holds a 6-4 record in her last ten matches. More importantly, the caliber of opponents she's faced dwarfs Siniakova's recent competition. Anisimova's clean ball-striking and aggressive baseline game should pose significant problems. Her forehand is particularly lethal when she finds her range, and her return of serve has improved dramatically.
The market has correctly identified Anisimova as the heavy favorite at 3-1 odds. However, there's minimal value in a straight-up wager at those short prices. The smarter play is targeting the method of victory. Anisimova 2-0 is available at 1.83 on Bet365, and this represents the most logical betting path. Her power and mental edge should allow her to dominate a player who has historically struggled with the psychological demands of singles competition at the highest level. Siniakova's tendency to drop service games in clusters makes the straight-sets scenario particularly appealing.
**Jessica Pegula vs. McCartney Kessler: Rematch from Austin**
These two Americans met previously at the 2025 WTA Austin final, where Pegula prevailed in straight sets after a tight opening tiebreak. That victory contributed to Pegula's three tournament titles last season, cementing her status as a consistent force on the WTA Tour. However, the Australian Open has proven to be her least successful major—she's never advanced beyond the quarterfinal stage in Melbourne. This mental hurdle cannot be discounted when evaluating her chances.
Kessler is steadily establishing herself as a dangerous opponent. With two titles in 2025 and now her third Australian Open appearance, she brings confidence and improving hardcourt credentials. Her left-handed game and aggressive shot-making make her a tricky early-round opponent for anyone. She'll be highly motivated to avenge last year's defeat and prove she belongs among the tour's elite.
Pegula enters as the deserved favorite based on ranking and experience. However, Kessler's trajectory suggests she won't be an easy out. The value may lie in exploring prop bets rather than simply backing Pegula outright. Given Pegula's historical struggles at this particular major and Kessler's upward mobility, considering the over on total games or Kessler to win a set could provide better returns. The head-to-head history indicates Pegula's win wasn't effortless, and Kessler has likely learned from that encounter. The pressure is squarely on Pegula to perform, which could create openings for the underdog.
**Final Thoughts on Australian Open Wagering**
The opening days of a Grand Slam always present unique challenges for bettors. Form lines are less reliable, and early-round matches can produce unpredictable results as players adjust to conditions. Success requires focusing on concrete data points: recent match fitness, head-to-head history, and psychological factors. The three matches analyzed here offer distinct value propositions—from Wang's clear form advantage to Anisimova's likely dominant performance and the potential complexity in the Pegula-Kessler rematch. As always, responsible betting means managing your bankroll wisely and recognizing that even the most logical analysis can't account for the inherent volatility of tennis at the highest level. The key is identifying where the odds diverge from reality, and all three of these matchups present such opportunities.