Mark Carney's diplomatic mission to Beijing this week marked a pivotal moment in Canadian foreign policy, representing the first official visit by a Canadian prime minister to China in nearly ten years. The trip yielded what Carney characterized as a "preliminary but landmark" trade agreement, while simultaneously introducing a provocative geopolitical framework that both Ottawa and Beijing seem eager to embrace: the concept of a "new world order."
The significance of this diplomatic thaw cannot be overstated. For the better part of a decade, relations between Canada and China remained in a deep freeze, characterized by mutual suspicion and minimal high-level contact. This chill began with the 2018 detention of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver at the request of American authorities, followed immediately by the retaliatory imprisonment of two Canadian citizens, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, in China. Their 2021 release ended the immediate crisis but left bilateral relations fractured.
Carney's decisive move to re-engage with Beijing reflects a fundamental recalibration of Canada's strategic priorities, driven by an urgent need to diversify its economic partnerships and reduce its overwhelming dependence on the United States.
Canada's Economic Imperative
The economic context provides crucial insight into Carney's motivations. Currently, approximately 70% of all Canadian exports are destined for the United States market—a concentration that leaves the Canadian economy dangerously vulnerable to American policy shifts. This vulnerability has been starkly illustrated in recent months, as the U.S. administration has sent increasingly mixed signals about its commitment to the long-standing trading relationship.
Former Canadian ambassador to China, Guy Saint-Jacques, offered a candid assessment: "The main goal of trying to reset or recalibrate the relationship with China has been achieved during this trip." Saint-Jacques emphasized that Carney is operating under significant pressure, noting that "Mr. Carney is driven by a sense of urgency. And this urgency comes from the difficulties that we have with our neighbour to the south."
Indeed, just as Carney was preparing to depart for Beijing, the American president publicly declared that the United States doesn't need Canadian products—a statement that sent shockwaves through Canadian business circles. While the president subsequently walked back these comments, expressing support for Canada's pursuit of Chinese trade deals, the initial remark laid bare the precariousness of Canada's position.
The "New World Order" Narrative
Perhaps most striking about Carney's visit was his explicit embrace of the "new world order" terminology—a phrase that resonates powerfully with Beijing's own narrative about the decline of American global hegemony. When Carney told reporters in Beijing that the progress and partnerships established during the visit would position both nations for this emerging reality, he was speaking a language that Chinese officials have long promoted.
This rhetorical alignment represents a significant departure from previous Canadian governments, which have typically avoided language that might be interpreted as challenging the post-war American-led international system. Carney's willingness to adopt this framing suggests a pragmatic acceptance of geopolitical realities rather than an ideological alignment with Chinese positions.
Lynette Ong, a political science professor and China scholar at the University of Toronto, observes that both sides bring a sense of desperation to these negotiations. "Carney and Canada are desperate for a closer relationship with China," she notes, but adds that Beijing faces equally pressing economic imperatives. Despite the headlines surrounding China's technological advances and electric vehicle dominance, the country remains heavily reliant on exports to drive economic growth. With the Chinese economy currently experiencing lacklustre performance, leadership in Beijing cannot afford to let export opportunities slip away.
Mutual Interests and Good Faith Negotiations
The convergence of interests between the two nations creates a foundation for what Chinese negotiators appear to hope will be "good faith" agreements. Notably, the Chinese foreign ministry's official statements made no mention of any intention to use Canada as a wedge against the United States—a significant omission that suggests Beijing wants to build a sustainable, independent relationship with Ottawa rather than merely exploiting it for tactical advantage.
The preliminary trade agreement announced on Friday includes provisions for up to 49,000 Chinese workers in sectors ranging from agriculture to technology, though details remain scarce as negotiations continue. The framework appears designed to expand market access for Canadian agricultural products, natural resources, and potentially clean technology, while giving Chinese firms greater access to Canadian markets and investment opportunities.
Sectoral Opportunities and Challenges
Canadian agricultural producers stand to gain significantly from restored market access. Prior to the diplomatic freeze, China represented Canada's second-largest trading partner, with billions in annual sales of canola, pork, and other commodities. Those exports collapsed under Chinese restrictions that Ottawa viewed as politically motivated. Any agreement that systematically removes these barriers could provide a lifeline to Canadian farmers who have struggled with both lost Chinese markets and uncertain American relationships.
Beyond agriculture, Canada's clean technology sector could find enormous opportunities in China's renewable energy transition. With the world's largest carbon emissions and ambitious climate targets, China offers a massive market for Canadian innovations in carbon capture, hydrogen technology, and sustainable mining practices. However, technology transfer concerns and intellectual property protection remain significant hurdles that negotiators must address.
Trump's Tacit Approval
The timing of the announcement proved particularly interesting from a diplomatic perspective. Within hours of Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiling their deal, the American president offered what amounted to tacit approval, telling reporters at the White House: "Well, it's OK. That's what he should be doing. If you can get a deal with China, you should do that."
This apparent reversal highlights the unpredictable nature of current American trade policy and arguably strengthens Carney's case for diversification. If even the U.S. president acknowledges the necessity of Canada pursuing alternative trading partners, the political risks of engaging with China diminish considerably.
However, critics within Canada worry about the potential costs of closer China ties. Labor groups and human rights advocates have expressed concerns that any comprehensive trade agreement could undermine Canadian workers' rights and ignore China's record on human rights and democratic freedoms. These tensions between economic necessity and values-based foreign policy will likely define the domestic debate as negotiations progress.
Values vs. Interests Dilemma
The challenge for Carney lies in balancing Canada's economic interests with its professed commitment to human rights and the rules-based international order. Previous governments have struggled with this tension, often finding that economic opportunities in China come with expectations of silence on issues like Hong Kong's autonomy, treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, and military pressure on Taiwan.
Carney has signaled that his government will pursue a "pragmatic" approach, but has provided few details on how this will differ from previous strategies. The opposition Conservative party has already criticized the visit, arguing that any deal with Beijing must include robust mechanisms for addressing human rights concerns and protecting Canadian sovereignty.
Strategic Implications for Global Trade
Carney's China initiative reflects a broader trend among middle powers seeking to navigate the increasingly complex terrain of great power competition. As the United States and China vie for global influence, nations like Canada find themselves pressured to choose sides while simultaneously recognizing that exclusive alignment with either power carries significant risks.
The "new world order" framing, therefore, serves multiple purposes. For Beijing, it validates their long-standing assertion that American dominance is waning. For Ottawa, it provides a rhetorical umbrella under which to pursue pragmatic economic diversification without explicitly declaring an anti-American policy. And for international observers, it signals that the rules-based global order is indeed evolving into something more multipolar and contested.
Looking Ahead
The success of Carney's China gambit will ultimately be measured not by the rhetoric employed or the preliminary agreements signed, but by tangible outcomes for Canadian exporters and workers. Can Ottawa secure meaningful market access for Canadian canola, pork, and other agricultural products that have faced Chinese restrictions? Will Canadian clean technology firms find new opportunities in China's massive renewable energy market? And perhaps most critically, can Canada maintain its sovereignty and values while deepening economic integration with an authoritarian superpower?
These questions remain unanswered, but one thing is clear: Carney has made a bold bet that Canada must adapt to "the world as it is, not as we wish it." Whether that adaptation strengthens Canadian prosperity or compromises its principles will depend on the careful navigation of negotiations in the months ahead.
For now, both Ottawa and Beijing have achieved their immediate objectives: a public reset of a crucial relationship and the promise of expanded economic cooperation. The long-term consequences of this rapprochement—for Canada, for China, and for the broader international system—will unfold in a geopolitical environment that grows more complex by the day.